Latest prediction! The replenishment of passive components has been advanced to December this year and January next year
Time:2022-12-20
Views:1304
Introduction: The rapid development of new energy, automotive electronics, 5G and other industries has driven the continuous growth of the demand for passive components. It is estimated that in the short term, the market growth certainty of high-end MLCC and special products is still high under the strong demand of booming markets such as automobile, industrial control and communication. The news shows that the replenishment tide of passive components has started, which is obvious to the channel merchants.
A few days ago, the Taiwan, China Industrial and Commercial Times reported that passive components had started a replenishment tide. The channel merchants felt quite obvious about this. As the number of working days in Q1 in 2023 decreased, the Spring Festival was brought forward to the last ten days of January, leading to the replenishment tide being brought forward to December of this year and January of next year. Therefore, even though it was difficult to get rid of the interference of year-end inventory in December and Christmas in Europe and the United States, which caused customers not to pull goods, the demand for these two months was not easy to bottom out. At the same time, passive component manufacturers said that the epidemic situation was slowing down, and dealers had the courage to place orders and destocking. The dealers‘ views on the first half of next year were no longer pessimistic.
Coincidentally, according to the Taiwan, China Economic Daily, the previous strategy of reducing production and adjusting inventory in the passive component industry has worked. With the solution of chip shortage, downstream customers have begun to replenish inventory recently, and the demand for orders has recovered; Q4 industry shipments are expected to increase month on month compared with Q3, and there is "no room for falling prices" for standard products.
It is reported that since the second quarter of this year, passive component manufacturers have successively started to reduce production, driving the inventory adjustment strategy to work. Now, with the solution of the problem of short and long materials of IC parts and components, Guoju, Huaxinke and other manufacturers said that the momentum of customers to pull goods has recovered recently, and the situation of receiving orders has become better, focusing on urgent orders.
Source: Network
According to the supply chain people, the problem of short and long materials has been eased. In addition, the production reduction of passive component factories has been effective. At the same time, on the eve of the long holiday at the end of the year, clients began to replenish inventory, and the passive component industry has started to move recently.
Guoju said that the order of niche products is stable at this stage; Standards will continue to be adjusted to the first or second quarter of next year.
Huaxinke said that the situation of receiving orders has really improved recently, mainly urgent orders. It is estimated that it is the short-term demand after the customers have completed the materials. In terms of application, urgent orders mainly focus on Netcom, servers, industrial control and vehicle use, and the market situation will be better next year.
This means that the inventory of passive component laminated ceramic capacitor (MLCC) standard products has been reduced to a certain extent, and the shipments of related manufacturers in the fourth quarter will increase compared with the third quarter; In terms of price, there is almost no room for price decline for standard products.
The improvement of the market is also reflected in the revenue. The revenue of Guoju and Huaxinke increased significantly in November. Guoju‘s revenue in November was NT $10.003 billion, up 2% month on month and 12.9% year on year, a record high in the same period; The accumulated revenue of the first November was 112.068 billion yuan, up 14% year on year. In November, Huaxinke‘s revenue also warmed up to NT $2678 million, up 9.3% month on month.
At present, Huaxinke is making efforts in the automotive field, while Guoju is reducing the proportion of standard products. Huaxinke has transferred its main resources and capacity to high-class products such as car gauge capacitors and car gauge chip resistors. Kaohsiung Road Bamboo Factory is expected to apply all of them in the field of car use. At this stage, car use accounts for about 10% of Huaxinke‘s overall performance, and is expected to increase to 20% within two years.
Under the active optimization of existing products, as well as the launch of mergers and acquisitions and the acquisition of high-level product applications, Guoju has reduced the proportion of standard products to 25%. After the completion of the merger and acquisition of two European sensor companies next year, the proportion of estimated standard products is expected to be further reduced to 20%.
From the mainland, Fenghua Hi Tech MLCC, chip resistors, inductors and other main products have passed the AEC-Q200, IATF16949 automotive system certification. It has domestic and foreign automotive electronics customers and continues to deepen cooperation. At the same time, it actively develops and promotes the product certification of new automotive electronics customers.
Shunluo Electronics also said that the capacity utilization ratio of communication and consumer products was lower than that of the same period last year, but the automotive electronic products still achieved stable and rapid growth, the demand for related products was strong, and the capacity utilization ratio remained at a high level.
On the other hand, the securities companies also gave a good forecast. Guojin Securities pointed out that, from the perspective of inventory and price, passive component manufacturers have slowed down their production expansion and reduced their production rate. At present, the original factories and channels continue to steadily promote the de inventory, and the price has entered the bottom range; Essence Securities also believes that MLCC destocking has reached a phased bottom among passive components, and Q4 has stabilized. The demand for new energy in the downstream of film capacitors is strong, the superimposed industrial chain moves eastward, and domestic manufacturers grow at a high speed.
In addition, according to TrendForce data, as of the first ten days of November, the average self owned inventory level of MLCC suppliers was still about 90 days, and the average inventory level of channel agents was 90 to 100 days. If large ODMs were added, the current average inventory level of MLCC was about 30 days - the overall market was still some distance from the average healthy water level.
It is reported that in the face of the poor profitability of quotations for most consumer grade medium and low capacity items, suppliers became conservative about price reduction. At the same time, traders who had been actively reducing prices and grabbing orders began to stop offering, leading some second-line mobile phone brand manufacturers to seek support from the original manufacturers. In general, the MLCC spot market may be nearing the end of de stocking, and it is expected that the price decline of Q4 consumer grade MLCC is expected to stabilize.
It is estimated that in the short term, the market growth certainty of high-end MLCC and special products is still high under the strong demand of booming markets such as automobile, industrial control and communication.
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