Domestic leading official announces price increase! The global MLCC market is expected to reach nearly 150 billion yuan in size
Time:2023-04-17
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Source: Semiconductor Industry Horizontals
This report is a 35 page "Emerging Technology Trends Report 2016-2045" released by the United States. This is the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) released by the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (DASAR&T) of the United States Army.
It is based on 32 research reports on technology trends published by government agencies, consulting agencies, think tanks, and research institutions in the United States in the past few years. Through a comprehensive comparison and analysis of nearly 700 technological trends, 20 core technological trends that will affect the world in the next thirty years have been identified from this dataset.
The report has two main objectives. Firstly, it aims to inform leaders across the United States. Stakeholders from the Army and joint, interagency, and international communities regarding technological trends that may affect the future operational environment and shape Army capabilities. Secondly, identify the main scientific and technological trends that may affect the Army‘s capabilities and future operational environment over the next 30 years.
Human expansion
In the next 30 years, technology will enable us to transcend biological limitations on human potential. Wearable devices connected through the Internet of Things will directly overlay context sensitive information onto our senses. Exoskeleton and brain interface repair surgery will make us stronger and restore the mobility of the elderly and frail. Sensors and computers embedded with contact lenses and permanent implants can allow us to hear whispers behind walls, giving us natural night vision and immersing us in virtual and augmented reality. Non nutritional drugs will expand our cognitive abilities, transform work and education. Of course, enhancing technology will come at a cost, and those who cannot afford to upgrade their "human chassis" may find themselves unable to compete in an enhanced economy. Network augmentation technology will also be an attractive target for hackers who want to control our body and mind. And the United States. The military will benefit from expanding its soldiers, and the troops will face similarly expanded opponents. An expanded arms race may evolve.Mobile and Cloud Computing
Mobile computing and cloud computing are changing the way people interact with data. In the United States, it is currently estimated that 30% of online browsing and 40% of social media usage are done on mobile devices. By 2030, 75% of the global population will have mobile connectivity, and 60% of people should have broadband access. Mobile devices are becoming increasingly powerful and versatile, with more and more embedded sensors capable of measuring weather, location, ambient light and sound, as well as biometric technology. The combination of cloud computing and mobile data access provides almost unlimited computing power that can seamlessly scale without the need for large-scale investment in IT infrastructure. In the next 30 years, cloud based mobile computing has the potential to transform everything from healthcare to education.
Mobile phones will monitor vital signs and communicate directly with diagnostic applications. People will use mobile devices‘ online education portals to learn new skills, and applications will allow farmers in developing countries to connect to real-time weather data and tools to optimize their harvests. At the same time, mobile and cloud computing will bring enormous pressure to network security, reliability, and bandwidth, and consumers and businesses will have to adapt more to transferring data to cloud computing.
Medical progress
In the next 30 years, medicine will usher in multiple technological breakthroughs. Genomics will lead to personalized medicine, including treatment for cancer, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer‘s disease, and other tailored diseases. Artificial organ will be planted from DNA samples for transplantation, eliminating the waiting time for life-saving transplantation and the risk of organ rejection. The prosthetic limb will be directly connected to the nervous system and combined with bio based sensors to provide near normal tactile sensation. Robotic emergency personnel and tissue preservation technologies, such as controlled hypothermia therapy, will completely change trauma care and greatly extend the ‘golden time‘ of injured soldiers. As scientists unlock the key to aging, people will live longer, stay healthy and active, until what we call ‘old age‘ today. At the same time, the cost of advanced healthcare will put pressure on many countries‘ healthcare systems and trigger increasing inequality in accessing life-saving treatment. The upcoming medical revolution will also enable people to maintain health and productivity in the coming decades, expand job competition between elderly and young workers, and create additional pressure on the social security network. Drug resistant bacteria will become an urgent issue in many regions of the world.
Network security
It is difficult to say that network defense is about the new trend warning "Cyber Pearl Harbor" as early as 1991. However, with the rise of the Internet of Things and the increasing interdependence and connectivity of the Internet in the next 30 years, daily life will bring cybersecurity to the forefront. The scope of digital and cyber attacks is increasing, with most targeting individual consumers or companies. Although the damage caused by individual attacks is widespread, it is easy to control. With the interconnection of cars, household appliances, power plants, street lights, and millions of other objects, the likelihood of a truly devastating cyber attack will increase. Countries, businesses, and individuals will face the challenge of ensuring that their data is protected from more covert attacks - many of which may remain undetected for several years. The worst-case scenario is to imagine a form of ‘electronic apocalypse‘, where the enormous economic and social forces of the Internet collapse under the weight of ruthless cyber attacks.
clean energy
Over the next 30 years, global energy demand is expected to increase by 35%. With the development of hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling, people have opened up a large number of new oil and gas reserves. These technologies have disrupted the global oil market and made the United States one of the world‘s largest producers of fossil fuels. At the same time, the cost of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy is approaching parity with fossil fuels. In the past 20 years, the cost of electricity produced by solar cells has decreased from nearly $8 per watt of capacity to less than one tenth of this figure. Although nuclear energy remains the subject of intense public debate, it continues to grow, and new reactor designs are expected to improve safety and reduce radioactive waste. Although adopting cleaner energy sources will help address global climate change, new frictions will arise in accessing rare materials used in batteries, solar cells, and other key products of the energy revolution. The decline of fossil fuels has also brought significant risks to economic and social instability throughout the Middle East and North Africa, posing new security challenges to the United States and its allies.
smart city
By 2045, 65 to 70% of the world‘s population - approximately 6.4 billion people - will reside in cities. With the increase of urban population, the number of mega cities with 10 million or more residents will increase, from 28 in 2016 to 41 in 2030. Large scale migration to cities will bring significant pressure to urban transportation systems, food and water supply, electricity and energy infrastructure, sanitation facilities, and public safety. Information and communication (ICT) technology will support the development of "smart cities" that utilize data and automation to make urban centers more efficient and sustainable. The distributed sensor system will monitor the usage of water and electricity and automatically balance distribution through the smart grid. The selection of network transportation systems and automated transportation tools will alleviate traffic congestion. New materials and design technologies will be used to construct intelligent buildings to maximize the efficiency of heating, cooling, and lighting. Roof solar panels, micro wind turbines, thermal energy, and other renewable energy sources will provide clean and distributed power generation. At the same time, cities that are unable to invest in these technologies (or lack political will) may become crowded, dirty, and dangerous points of instability and conflict.
Internet of Things
According to conservative estimates, by 2045, more than 100 billion devices will be connected to the internet. This will include mobile and wearable devices, household appliances, medical devices, industrial sensors, safety cameras, cars, clothing, and other technologies. All of these devices will generate and share a large amount of information, which will completely change our way of work and life. People will utilize the information generated through the Internet of Things (IoT) to make smarter decisions and gain a deeper understanding of their lives and the world around them. At the same time, networked devices will also automate many monitoring, management, and repair tasks that currently require manual labor. The intersection of the Internet of Things, analytics, and artificial intelligence will create a global network of intelligent machines that conduct a large number of critical businesses without human intervention. And the Internet of Things will improve many aspects. It will also exacerbate concerns about cybersecurity and privacy in terms of economic efficiency, public safety, and personal productivity. Criminal organizations, kb elements, and hostile ethnic states will use the Internet of Things as a new vehicle for attacking the United States and its allies. The large amount of data generated through connected devices will also enable governments to monitor populations on a large scale, leading to ongoing tensions between digital freedom and security.
Food and Water Technology
In the next 30 years, the shortage of food and fresh water will become a crisis point in many regions of the world. Currently, approximately 25% of farmland has been degraded due to excessive cultivation, drought, and air/water pollution. According to optimistic predictions, the price of staple grains may rise by 30% in the coming decades -100% growth is impossible if climate change, demand patterns, and resource management failures continue to follow the current development trajectory. By 2045, 3.9 billion people, over 40% of the world‘s population, will face water resource pressure. Technology has provided many potential solutions for the food and water crisis. Seawater desalination, micro irrigation, water recovery, rainwater harvesting, and other technologies can alleviate the pressure on freshwater supply. Genetically modified crops and automation can increase crop yields and allow farmers to produce more nutrients from less land. For a long time, food and water, which have been taken for granted in developed countries, will become the main focus of innovation and may become the main trigger points for conflicts.
Quantum computing
Quantum computing utilizes the properties of subatomic particles, such as superposition and entanglement, to encode and manipulate data. Although this technology has been discussed as a theoretical possibility for decades, recent research efforts across academia, industry, and government laboratories are beginning to showcase quantum systems that may have practical applications in the next 5-15 years. Quantum computing may be a key technology that can revolutionize multiple other technological fields, such as climate modeling, drug research, and materials science. However, interest in quantum computing is related to how it changes cryptography. Quantum computer can crack all current encryption methods, and quantum cryptography can provide the first truly unbreakable coding technology. Recent research has begun to overcome many technical problems that limit the development of practical quantum computer. Although the practical application of quantum computing may not have emerged until the mid-1940s, the influx of significant investment from governments and industries suggests that quantum computing may be approaching a critical point.
social empowerment
Currently, approximately 65% of American adults use social media, up from 7% in 2005. Social media has undoubtedly changed people‘s online connection methods, but in the next 30 years, social technology will become an engine for empowering individuals to shape their image through microculture. Many traditional power structures will be overturned as people form internet-based communities defined by social contracts mediated by technology. Governments around the world will find that without the filtering of mass media, people will directly share eyewitness descriptions of fb and oppression, making it increasingly difficult to control political narratives. Although companies will learn new technologies to interact with consumers through social channels, these consumers will also use social platforms to reduce advertising noise and hold companies accountable for their products and behaviors. Crowdsourcing and content streaming will further democratize content creation and blur the boundaries between media creators and consumers. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may lead to definitions of currency and trade based on social consensus rather than government control. For the United States. The empowerment of the military and society will fundamentally change the views of young people on military service. For example, those who first define themselves as members of... online communities may not be easily attracted by calls for patriotism and public service. Social media sharing will also make it more challenging for the military to win narrative battles in future conflicts.
Advanced Digital
In the past 60 years, computers and other digital devices have completely changed life, making it almost impossible for people to remember that these technologies are relatively new. The first personal computer was not sold until 1975 and can only be sold as a kit that customers must assemble and program themselves. However, only 40 years later, 68% of Americans have smartphones with stronger processing power than when astronauts were sent to the moon in 1969. The next 30 years may continue to improve computing power and wider availability of digital resources. Mobile and cloud computing will provide almost unlimited memory and processing speed. Virtualization and software defined systems will allow governments and businesses to quickly adapt to IT infrastructure without the need for expensive and wasteful hardware upgrades. Digital products will be integrated into a wider range of daily necessities, from clothing to building materials. At the same time, technology is emerging, which will change the way we interact with devices. Voice interfaces are already common in smartphones and will continue to be improved. The gesture interface will enable us to communicate with computers through nonverbal behavior. Ultimately, brain computer interfaces will allow us to control devices through thinking, making digital systems a natural extension of our bodies, serving as our own limbs. All these developments will bring new opportunities and challenges to the military. For example, embedded digital systems will enable soldiers to connect to each other and support maintenance, fire coordination, and intelligent analysis. On the other hand, the surge in advanced computing power will increase the risk of serious network attacks.
Mixed reality
Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR and AR) have generated great enthusiasm in the consumer electronics industry. Facebook will launch a VR helmet market developed by Oculus VR this year and acquired the system in 2014. Other major electronics including Samsung, Sony, and HTC
The company has been releasing virtual reality products this year, marking a significant breakthrough in virtual reality as a mainstream entertainment technology. Applications are emerging outside the entertainment industry. For example, home improvement chain Lowes is developing holographic rooms - a 3D augmented reality room that allows shoppers to design a living area and then walk into a virtual model of the space to better experience its appearance. The exaggerated expectations of the history of virtual reality and augmented reality technology will change the ultra high resolution display of media in the 1990s, low-cost location and position tracking, and high-definition video content, laying a solid foundation for the merging of the real world and digital information through "hybrid reality" technology. In the next 30 years, these technologies should become more widespread. AR displays will provide real-time, context-aware data coverage, while VR will deeply enable immersive experience integration of vision, sound, smell, and touch. There are applications for training combat operations for the U.S. military, virtual reality, and augmented reality.
Climate change technology
Current data shows that by 2050, global surface temperatures will rise by 2.5 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Even if dramatic measures are taken today to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, climate inertia ensures that some climate change will be inevitable. Therefore, sea levels may rise, posing a threat to coastal cities; Crop yields may decrease, leading to famine in some parts of developing countries; Drought may threaten millions of people who lack fresh water, while floods may threaten them with billions of dollars in damage to homes, businesses, and public infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, these risks will drive investment in technological solutions to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change. In the short term, climate change technologies will include flood hazard mapping systems and drought resistant genetically modified crops. In the long run, more ambitious technologies may emerge, such as carbon sequestration methods, which can release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and safely store them underground. If climate change seems to follow a warming pattern of 4-5 degrees or more, it may have an irreducible and unstable impact on the Earth‘s climate. In this situation, serious efforts in geoengineering may become the only solution to avoid catastrophic climate change. For example, scientists estimate that planting sulfur or aluminum oxide particles in the atmosphere can reduce the amount of solar radiation that impacts Earth. These interventions are still highly theoretical and the risks may be very high.
Advanced materials
In the past decade, material science has made impressive progress, such as self-healing and self-cleaning smart materials; Memory metal that can restore its original shape; Piezoelectric ceramics can be used to obtain energy from pressure; And nanomaterials with significant structural and electrical properties. Nanomaterials have enormous potential in a wide range of applications. At the nanoscale (less than 100 nanometers), ordinary materials have unique properties. For example, graphene is a lattice formed by a single carbon atom, which is 100 times stronger than steel, can effectively conduct heat and electricity, and is almost transparent. Nanomaterials have been used in ultra smooth coatings for engines and other machines, solid composites for aircraft and automobiles, lightweight bulletproof vest, and high-efficiency photoelectric applications. In addition to industrial applications, pharmaceutical companies are developing therapeutic nanoparticles that can one day provide targeted drug therapy for cancer, greatly reducing side effects while improving treatment outcomes. In the next 30 years, nano materials and other new materials, such as metal foam and ceramic composites, will be found in clothing, building materials, vehicles, roads and bridges, as well as countless other items. The US Army will be able to utilize advanced materials to produce lighter and more robust batteries and renewable energy systems.
space
The space industry has entered a period of innovation and progress never seen since the space race in the 1960s. New technologies such as robotics, advanced propulsion systems, lightweight materials, additive manufacturing, and miniaturization have greatly reduced the cost of sending people and materials into space and opened up new possibilities for space exploration. New entrants to the space market, including SpaceX, Ariana Space and Blue Origin, are disrupting the stagnant commercial launch sector and promoting innovations such as reusable launch vehicles. In the next 30 years, research and development will enable humans to return to the moon and may lead to more dramatic explorations, including human exploration of Mars and the start of new space-based industries such as asteroid mining. Although the exploration and potential colonization of space have long captivated our imagination, the increasing reliance on space infrastructure may lead to new frictions on Earth. As more and more countries begin to rely on space assets, control over space may become an important flashpoint. The militarization of space is not impossible, and anti satellite warfare may have a profound impact on the United States. The Army heavily relies on satellites for secure global communication, intelligence collection, and coordination of joint maneuvers.
Synthetic biology
For thousands of years, humans have manipulated the genetic code of animals and plants through selective breeding and hybridization, long before Mendelian established the basic laws of genetics or the Avery McClaud McCarty experiment. However, as our understanding of genetics deepens, it is becoming possible to design customized organisms by constructing new DNA sequences from scratch. Genetically modified crops represent the vanguard of this technology, but we are on the brink of a broader revolution that will turn life itself into information that can be written and rewritten like computer code. Scientists are already designing algae that can secrete biofuels and using DNA to encode thousands of megabytes of data. In the next 30 years, synthetic biology will produce engineering organisms that can detect toxins, create biofuels from industrial waste, and provide drugs through symbiosis with human hosts. At the same time, synthetic biology represents a huge risk, including engineering biological weapons and invasive synthetic organisms that may damage natural ecosystems.
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